Monthly Archives: April 2013

Margin Debt Hitting Levels Only Seen ONE Other Time in History!, from

CK-130430-Fig-1 Note from dshort: Yesterday my friend Chris Kimble requested an update to the NYSE margin debt datathat I've sometimes featured in the past. Here's his take and annotated version of the chart. Some times in history, investors feel so confident about the future of stocks that they actually use up all their available cash and then borrow money to invest in the market. Now is one of those times! The chart below was created by Doug Short, see his outstanding work here. Positive net

March Spending Driven By Surge In Services, by Lance Roberts

PCE-Services-042913 The latest personal income and expenditure report for March was of particularly interesting reading.  However, as opposed to the mainstream headlines that immediately reported that despite higher payroll taxes consumers were still spending, and therefore a sign of a strong economy, it was where they were spending that was most telling.  As I searched the various headlines, and read several of the economic releases, I came across only one analysis that questioned the headline report. Tyler Durden

Weekly update, by A.D

merkel-euro-greece_2213295b Dear all,   I am now back from holidays. Not much has changed since I last wrote a weekly report: the markets are still going up while fundamentals remain pretty poor. Today I will focus on the number of voices raising against austerity in Eurozone and comment the latest economic data such as the US GDP.   Eurozone: bye-bye Austerity? During the last few months a number of voices raised against austerity; mainly from the governments who had implemented austerity measures,

The new GDP calculation method, by Peter Schiff

Peter_Schiff Don Draper, Mad Men's master advertiser likes to say "when you don't like what they are saying, change the conversation."  When it comes to the current economic weakness, which was confirmed again today by the release of lower than expected GDP data, Washington would love do just that. Fortunately for them, they consistently outdo the master minds of Madison Avenue when it comes to misdirection. If the government doesn't like what people are saying, they don't bother just to change the conversation,

Japan’s Wild Market Ride & The Future of Monetary Policy, by Cullen Roche

Japan_stocks In case you haven’t been paying attention, the Japanese stock market is on an epic run.  The Nikkei 225 is up 60% since last November when government officials began hinting at big policy changes that have since come to be known as “Abenomics”.  Abenomics is essentially a strategy where the government will throw everything including the kitchen sink at the economy.  So they’ve announced a huge fiscal package, an inflation target and a massive QE program.  I’ve said that the policy has

The Week That Was: April 22nd-26th 2013, from Zero Hedge

Stock-market-bull-bear_0 (1) Succinctly summarizing the positive and negative news, data, and market events of the week... Positives Spanish spreads ignore reality, continue to compress March new home sales beat expectations (average prices plunge) Apple to 'return' billions to shareholders (and continue to avoid paying taxes) UK avoided a triple dip recession (for now) Gold begins to retrace its ugly plunge BTFD! Central banks admit they're purchasing stocks – quite bullish for those trading on momentum

Is Abenomics Working? by Cullen Roche

japan_inflation1 We’re getting deeper and deeper into the experiment now known as “Abenomics” in Japan.  Ultimately, the plan is designed to defeat the decades of deflationary pressures in the Japanese economy.  They’ve announced a massive fiscal plan, an official 2% inflation “target” a doubling of the BOJ’s balance sheet and as a result the Yen has declined 30% in a matter of months and the Japanese stock market has surged over 60%.  By the looks of the market reaction you’d think that something

It’s A Bit Early To Declare A Winner In The Economic Debate, by Lance Roberts

Debt-GDP-Ratios-042513-2 Recently, Henry Blodget wrote that "The Economic Argument Is Over - And Paul Krugman Won."  The premise of the article is that the ongoing debate between economic schools of thought, since the financial crisis began, over what policies were necessary to get the domestic and international economies growing again has been resolved. "On one side were economists and politicians who wanted to increase government spending to offset weakness in the private sector. This 'stimulus' spending, economists

The Global Economic Slowdown Has Arrived Right On Schedule, by Walter Kurtz (Business Insider)

markit pmi us The "spring slowdown" is here again. As discussed earlier (see post), the previous three years saw a strong start in the US, followed by a slowdown in economic activity, particularly in manufacturing. What's especially troubling this year is that we are also seeing a corresponding slowdown in other major economies that were thought to be in good shape, namely Germany ...                                                                              

STA Economic & Employment Composites Paint Weak Picture Written by Lance Roberts

STA-EOCI-Index-042213 With the recent release of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) I can now complete my economic and employment composites for March.  The problem, as I see it, with most economic data is that it is generally too specific to a particular region, or industry, to tell us much about the health of overall economy.  Furthermore, the data is generally viewed on a month over month basis which obfuscates the real story behind the data which is revealed by analyzing the overall trend. For example,