Monthly Archives: June 2013

Holiday time!

dakhla-accueil-03 It is time for a holiday! I won't be able to write weekly report next week then. Next week will be big in terms of economic data: ISM, PIM, monthly unemployment numbers etc. You can follow them on my site ( It is likely to be "good news is bad news and bad news is good news" (any bad news will actually be good news for the markets because it will increase the likelihood of the Fed not tapering any time soon - and good news will be bad news for the markets

NYSE Margin Debt: Was April a Cyclical Peak? By Doug Short

NYSE-margin-debt-SPX-growth-since-1995 Note from dshort: One of my economic correspondents, James Ross, called my attention to the fact that the NYSE has released new data for margin debt, now available through May. I've updated the charts in this commentary to include the new numbers. The New York Stock Exchange publishes end-of-month data for margin debt on the NYXdata website, where we can also find historical data back to 1959. Let's examine the numbers and study the relationship between margin debt and the market, using the

US GDP revised number for Q1: are you kidding me???

consumption The GDP number for Q1 just got released: 1.8% compared to 2.4% previously estimated. The biggest drop came from personal consumption expenditures that contibuted to 2.4% of the GDP according to the previous estimate and only 1.83% to the revised number. What a miss! See below the details. Source: Zero Hedge A.D

Weekly update, by A.D

Anleger verfolgen Börsenkurse in Shanghai Dear all, Wow, what a week! Both equity and bond markets got badly smashed! Those who keep saying that equity markets have been following fundamentals and that market moves of the past years haven't been driven by Central Banks must be disappointed and frustrated. They will just keep silent for a little while and come back when the situation gets more favorable to them, no doubt! Today I will focus on the latest developments in China and will then comment recent market moves in 3. 1. China:

How Currency Wars End: Violence Erupts in Brazil, Fatalities Reported; One Million Protest, by “Mish” Shedlock

brazil-world-cup-protests-masked-man-fire-3 The flareup in Brazil erupted in violence overnight as millions protested corruption, inflation, bus fares and a seemingly growing list of items. Unsurprisingly, the Brazilian real weakened against the dollar now in its sixth consecutive day of decline. Bloomberg reports Brazilian Revolt Claims First Fatality as Violence Erupts.  Brazil’s swelling street rebellion claimed its second fatality in the largest and most violent protests yet, as 1 million demonstrators rallied for better public

The Week That Was: June 17th – June 21st 2013, from Zero Hedge

Stock-market-bull-bear_0 (1) Succinctly summarizing the positive and negative news, data, and market events of the week... Positives June FOMC says no taper quite yet, keep buying Fed & bulls claim employment ‘recovery’, but here are the facts Philly Fed posts huge beat in June, coming in at a 12.5 print CME hikes gold margins by 25%, that’ll teach those evil ZH’ers Don’t sweat it, just BTFD: a visual Another visual: Assume no fed, or said otherwise by some peeps, growth accelerating Fed

MAULDIN: Regulations And Socialism Are Crushing The French Economy, And It’s Going To Get Worse

Foudroyee The France that I see as I look out from the bullet train today is far different from the France I see when I survey the economic data. Going from Marseilles to Paris, the countryside is magnificent. The farms are laid out as if by a landscape artist – this is not the hurly-burly no-nonsense look of the Texas landscape. The mountains and forests that we glide through are glorious. It is a weekend of special music all over France, and last night in Marseilles the stages were alive and the crowds

China red flags, from Zero Hedge

flag_china  China 7-day repo +374bps to 12%! China Flash PMI 48.2 (49.1 exp) - lowest in 9 months; worst 3-month plunge since Feb 2011. Via Market News International: HSBC chief China economist Qu Hongbin on June flash PMI (48.3 vs 49.2): "The HSBC China Flash Manufacturing PMI dropped to a nine-month low of 48.3 in June, following on the sequential reduction in both production and demand. Manufacturing sectors are weighed down by deteriorating external demand, moderating domestic demand

Weekly update, by A.D

Bernanke prayer Dear all, Another week of uncertainty and concerns. Complacency times are not behind us and signs of tensions have been accumulating lately. I will go through those signs in today's note. Signs of tensions Last week I did mention that volatility was back. Well, it is still there! Japan markets have turned wild! +5% one day, -4% the next day ... and the same applies to the JPY who has been strenghtening a lot lately. Every time someone "important" pronounces the word tapering, markets react

ALBERT EDWARDS: ‘One Of The Biggest Economic Bubbles Is About To Go Into The Minsky Masher’ ,by Mamta Badkar

sydney-opera-house-dust-storm Australia's GDP growth expanded merely 0.6% in the first quarter. This was after a 0.6% rise in Q4 2012. Meanwhile, there are a lot of people shorting the Australian dollar. Minus export growth however, Societe Generale's Albert Edwards writes that gross national expenditure (GNE) has fallen for two straight quarters. "One of the biggest economic bubbles in history is now about to go into the Minsky masher," writes Edwards. This refers to periods of speculation that lead to crisis, and was