Monthly Archives: October 2013

These Two Charts Show Global Economy Headed for Slowdown, by Michael Lombardi

Comparisson-World-GDP-Rate-to-Caterpillar-Inc-Revenue-Chart While the mainstream media and politicians are telling us the economy is improving ... key economic indicators point to a global economy headed the wrong way. The Baltic Dry Index is an indicator of demand in the global economy. If the Baltic Dry Index is declining, it means the global demand for goods is softening. When you look at the chart below, you'll see the devastated Baltic Dry Index -- the index is saying demand never came back after the credit crisis of 2008.   Chart courtesy

Are We Entering The 3rd Stage Of The Bull Market? by Lance Roberts

3-phases-of-bullmarkets-102313 hroughout human history the emotions of "fear" and "greed" have influenced market dynamics.  From soaring bull markets to crashing bear markets, tulip bubbles to the South Sea, railroads to technology; the emotions of greed, fear, panic, hope and despair have remained a constant driver of investor behavior.  The chart below shows the investor psychology cycle overlaid against the S&P 500. With the current bull market now stretching into its fifth year; it seems appropriate to review

The Most Dangerous Line Uttered During The Debt Ceiling Debate, by Lance Roberts

Debt-vs-GDP-Obama-101713 This morning there is a great sense of relief that has swept the nation as news flowed through the media that the government shutdown had come to an end.  After all, during the 16 days of the shutdown, there was great hardship inflicted on the average American as the stock market rose by 2.4%, government workers that were furloughed received a 2+ week paid vacation and interest rates fell from a peak of 2.65% on October 1st to 2.59% on October 17th.  Outside of the financial markets, which

NYSE Margin Debt Rises to a New Interim High, by Doug Short

NYSE-investor-credit-SPX-since-1980 Note from dshort: The NYSE has released new data for margin debt, now available through September. I've updated the charts in this commentary to include the new numbers. The New York Stock Exchange publishes end-of-month data for margin debt on the NYXdata website, where we can also find historical data back to 1959. Let's examine the numbers and study the relationship between margin debt and the market, using the S&P 500 as the surrogate for the latter. The first chart shows the two