Central Banks: the great illusion, for now … by A.D

mirage Dear all, It seems like nowadays, the most followed / most important market news are not anymore data (employment, GDP, inflation, corporate profits etc.) but rather speeches from Central Banks presidents.  And if I had to give an Oscar to the best of them, I would no doubt give it to Draghi as up until recently, he had managed to lift the markets without hardly spending any Euro so! The same cannot be said about Kuroda for instance. Fundamentals don’t matter so much anymore, or when they do,

These Two Charts Show Global Economy Headed for Slowdown, by Michael Lombardi

Comparisson-World-GDP-Rate-to-Caterpillar-Inc-Revenue-Chart While the mainstream media and politicians are telling us the economy is improving ... key economic indicators point to a global economy headed the wrong way. The Baltic Dry Index is an indicator of demand in the global economy. If the Baltic Dry Index is declining, it means the global demand for goods is softening. When you look at the chart below, you'll see the devastated Baltic Dry Index -- the index is saying demand never came back after the credit crisis of 2008.   Chart courtesy

Are We Entering The 3rd Stage Of The Bull Market? by Lance Roberts

3-phases-of-bullmarkets-102313 hroughout human history the emotions of "fear" and "greed" have influenced market dynamics.  From soaring bull markets to crashing bear markets, tulip bubbles to the South Sea, railroads to technology; the emotions of greed, fear, panic, hope and despair have remained a constant driver of investor behavior.  The chart below shows the investor psychology cycle overlaid against the S&P 500. With the current bull market now stretching into its fifth year; it seems appropriate to review

The Most Dangerous Line Uttered During The Debt Ceiling Debate, by Lance Roberts

Debt-vs-GDP-Obama-101713 This morning there is a great sense of relief that has swept the nation as news flowed through the media that the government shutdown had come to an end.  After all, during the 16 days of the shutdown, there was great hardship inflicted on the average American as the stock market rose by 2.4%, government workers that were furloughed received a 2+ week paid vacation and interest rates fell from a peak of 2.65% on October 1st to 2.59% on October 17th.  Outside of the financial markets, which

NYSE Margin Debt Rises to a New Interim High, by Doug Short

NYSE-investor-credit-SPX-since-1980 Note from dshort: The NYSE has released new data for margin debt, now available through September. I've updated the charts in this commentary to include the new numbers. The New York Stock Exchange publishes end-of-month data for margin debt on the NYXdata website, where we can also find historical data back to 1959. Let's examine the numbers and study the relationship between margin debt and the market, using the S&P 500 as the surrogate for the latter. The first chart shows the two

NYSE Margin Debt Is Rising Once Again, by Doug Short, Advisors Perpective

screen shot 2013-09-25 at 1.40.12 pm The New York Stock Exchange publishes end-of-month data for margin debt on the NYXdata website, where we can also find historical data back to 1959. Let's examine the numbers and study the relationship between margin debt and the market, using the S&P 500 as the surrogate for the latter. The first chart shows the two series in real terms — adjusted for inflation to today's dollar using the Consumer Price Index as the deflator. I picked 1995 as an arbitrary start date. We were well into

Weekly update by A.D

8258232538_e75bf78cba_b Dear all, It has been a while since the last time I wrote a weekly update. I think that sometimes it is good to take a pause and take a bit of distance in order to get a better judgement. Btw, in my last note I stated that gold and silver represented good buying opportunities. Since then they have gained 10% and 17% respectively. In today's note I am going to focus on Bernanke's latest shocking decision not to taper. I will try to explain why he did this and what the consequences of such decisions

Eurozone Recovery Fades – Will The U.S. Follow?, by Lance Roberts (Streettalklive)

Industrial-production-US-Euro-091713-2 It has been a "Summer of Recovery" for the U.S. economy with GDP growth rising from 1.1% in the first quarter to 2.5% in the second and manufacturing surveys showed sharp jumps in new orders and outlooks.  The same occurred in the Eurozone with Markit's PMI reports showing sharp bounces higher and hopes that the recession that has plagued the region was finally coming to an end.  The question of sustainability remains. I have noted several times as of late, most recently here, that

The Fed Is On The Verge Of ‘Tapering’ — And The Economic Data Has Nothing To Do With It, from MATTHEW BOESLER (Business Insider)

Fed-Taper Wall Street expects the Federal Reserve to announce the first reduction in the pace of monthly bond purchases it makes under its quantitative easing (QE) program at the conclusion of its FOMC monetary policy meeting Wednesday. Right now, the Fed buys $45 billion in U.S. Treasuries and $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities each month – $85 billion of bonds in total – in a bid to stimulate the American economy. The consensus on the Street is that the Fed's first "tapering" of QE will consist

Ray Dalio: Eurocrisis Ain’t Over, by Lance Roberts

euro-crisis--cartoonmvt Back in June I penned an article entitled "Is The Eurozone Crisis Set To Flare Up" which discussed some of the reasons why, despite Mario Draghi's pledge to "do anything", that I believed investors were overlooking the real risks to the financial markets and the domestic economy.   Specifically I stated:   "With youth unemployment spiraling higher, economic stress rising and government revenue shrinking it is only a function of time until something goes horribly wrong.  The timing